Academic resilience in 75 education systems: how operationalization and threshold choices shape findings on protective factors
Academic resilience—students’ capacity to succeed despite socioeconomic disadvantage—is widely studied, but little consensus exists on how it should be operationalized. Inconsistent definitions make it difficult to compare findings across studies and to draw conclusions about what promotes resilience. The present study asks whether different operationalizations and thresholds lead to different estimates of resilience and different conclusions about its predictors. Using PISA 2018 data from 75 education systems and based on an existing measurement framework, we compared three ways of operationalizing academic resilience: identifying high-achieving disadvantaged students, identifying students who outperform expectations given their socioeconomic status, and predicting achievement within a disadvantaged sample. We applied each at three relative threshold levels of disadvantage and/or high achievement, and assessed the consequences for the estimated prevalence of resilient students and for the associations of four factors (gender, self-perceived reading competence, reading enjoyment, attitude toward learning) with resilience. Prevalence estimates varied nearly fivefold across operationalizations, and rankings of education systems differed substantially. When associations were pooled meta-analytically, they were broadly consistent across operationalizations and threshold levels. When education systems were analyzed separately, however—as is standard in PISA-based research—findings were consistent in only 20–72% of systems, depending on the factor, and threshold level alone altered conclusions in 3–37%. A complementary interaction analysis of risk and protective factors, which requires no threshold, further showed that some motivational factors were associated with a flatter socioeconomic gradient in achievement and others with a steeper one—a pattern that threshold-based definitions cannot detect. Operationalization and threshold levels can meaningfully affect the conclusions studies reach about academic resilience and its predictors. While part of this dependence is mechanical, given how the operationalizations are constructed, the magnitude of this dependence across education systems suggests that findings should not be interpreted independently of the operationalization used to produce them. We provide recommendations for matching operationalization choices to research questions.